ICT. Buybacks and Record Global Volumes Meet the Congestion Selloff

Highlights

• Global container volumes hit a record 17.46 million TEUs in August, up 4% year on year, even as port congestion weighed on ICT.
• ICT bought back its own shares on Oct. 14 and 15 as the stock slid 10.2% over the past month.
• Vini Research Desk rates ICT a Buy, ~31% upside to our ₱1126.50 fair value.

The Setup

A week after Hapag-Lloyd suspended Philippine bookings, ICT shares tumbled on Oct. 14 and pulled the PSEi down to 5,617. The company bought back its own stock that day and the next, while foreign investors were net buyers through the decline. Industry pricing also held firm, with the CTS Global Price Index up two points to 117 in August on higher fuel costs and continuing Middle East disruptions. Our momentum read on ICT is Bullish.

Source: PSE disclosure

Our Read

The selloff prices Manila congestion as a demand problem, but record global volumes of 17.46 million TEUs point to a throughput problem. Management buying stock into the drop signals it sees the hit as transitory, and so does steady foreign buying. At a ₱1.64 trillion market cap, the price now assumes a lasting Manila impairment that the volume data does not support, which makes this drawdown an entry point on a temporary bottleneck.

Vini Research Desk rates ICT a Buy, seeing about 31% upside to our fair value of ₱1126.50. Firm container demand, together with buybacks that shrink the share count, supports future dividend growth and capital appreciation, which benefits holders of the Passive Income Plan and Smart Momentum Quant Plan.

What We're Watching

• Investor briefing commentary on Manila yard utilization and clearing times
• Resumption of Hapag-Lloyd's Philippine bookings
• Congestion trends at Durban, South Africa