Solar-Linked Storage Funding Meets a Lower Entry Price

Highlights

• ₱6 billion of ACEN’s financing supports the 500MW/1,000MWh SanMar battery storage project alongside its existing solar plant.
• ₱2.58 puts ACEN down 15.41% over one month, versus our ₱3.30 house fair value estimate.
• Vini Research Desk rates ACEN a Buy, seeing about 28% upside to our ₱3.30 fair value.

The Setup

ACEN Corporation is extending over ₱9 billion in loans to its units for solar farm and battery energy storage development. Of this financing, ₱6 billion supports construction of the 500MW/1,000MWh SanMar Battery Energy Storage System in San Marcelino, Zambales. The project will be integrated with ACEN’s existing solar plant to form an Integrated Renewable Energy and Storage System.

ACEN trades at ₱2.58 following a 15.41% decline over the past month, alongside net foreign selling. The shares have rallied 18.3% from their 52-week low of ₱2.18 on Sep. 12, 2025, but remain below their 52-week high of ₱3.45 on Jun. 5, 2026.

Source: PSE disclosure

Our Read

Our conviction rests on a lower entry price alongside funding for a substantial storage addition to an existing solar asset. SanMar is not simply another standalone capacity commitment: integrating batteries with solar creates scope to shift delivery beyond daylight generation hours. That gives the ₱6 billion loan a concrete operating purpose, although the earnings contribution depends on commissioning and commercial returns.

The financing advances construction; it does not itself create new group operating revenue. For ACEN, the key test is whether the expanded operating portfolio produces enough incremental cash earnings to absorb depreciation and financing costs. Storage integration strengthens the development case, but productive operation must deliver the payoff.

We see the 15.41% monthly selloff as an opportunity to buy that medium-term growth at a lower price, rather than an immediate earnings catalyst from the loans. Our capital-appreciation case rests on funded capacity translating into cash generation.

Vini Research Desk rates ACEN a Buy, seeing about 28% upside to our fair value of ₱3.30.

The SanMar financing supports future capital appreciation as storage becomes productive, benefiting ACEN holders in the Smart Momentum Quant Plan.

What We're Watching

• SanMar construction, solar integration and commissioning milestones.
• Storage commercial arrangements and the timing of revenue contributions.
• Incremental cash earnings against depreciation, financing costs and further funding needs.
• Whether net foreign selling eases after the monthly decline.