Solar Supply Deal Deepens NIKL’s Renewable Exposure

The Setup

Shell Energy Philippines signed a new 15-year power supply agreement for an additional 120 megawatts from Phase 2 of Greenlight Renewables’ San Isidro Solar Power Project in Leyte. Combined with the earlier 15-year agreement for Phase 1, Greenlight now has 240 MW of capacity committed to Shell Energy. Phase 1 was energized in October 2025, while Phase 2 followed on July 30, 2026.

Greenlight is a joint venture between Shell and Emerging Power, Inc., the renewable-energy arm of Nickel Asia. Shell Energy supplies more than 100 commercial and industrial customers spanning real estate, manufacturing, education, and retail.

NIKL trades at ₱4.59, up 11.4% over the past month despite net foreign selling. The stock has rallied 44% from its 52-week low of ₱3.18 on Sep. 26, 2025, while remaining below its ₱5.64 high recorded on Feb. 26, 2026.

Source: news article

Our Read

The key change is that both operating phases of San Isidro now have long-duration offtake agreements. That gives Greenlight a clearer route to monetize its full 240-MW capacity and improves revenue visibility for NIKL’s renewable-energy exposure through EPI. With both phases already energized, execution is shifting from construction and customer acquisition toward generation and delivery.

The agreement also advances NIKL’s diversification beyond nickel mining, where earnings remain sensitive to ore prices, grades, shipment volumes, and weather. The solar business is still unlikely to displace mining as the principal earnings driver soon, but contracted capacity can gradually add a more predictable income stream. Contract tariffs, payment protections, operating costs, and NIKL’s attributable economics were not disclosed, so actual earnings contribution remains the next test.

The 44% rebound from the 52-week low means part of the improving outlook is already reflected in the shares. Even so, the current price remains below both the 52-week high and our assessed value, while net foreign selling has not prevented the recent advance. Vini Research Desk rates NIKL a Buy, seeing about 28% upside to our fair value of ₱5.87. The additional contracted solar capacity supports future capital appreciation for NIKL, which benefits holders of the Smart Momentum Quant Plan.

What We're Watching

• Initial generation and delivery volumes from San Isidro Phase 2.
• Disclosure of contract tariffs, escalation clauses, and payment protections.
• EPI’s attributable earnings, project debt, and capital requirements.
• Whether buying broadens enough to absorb continued net foreign selling.