MYNLD. Green Label Alignment and Lower Water Losses Meet a Sold-Off Stock

Highlights

• Maynilad cut non-revenue water to 31.5%, so more of the water it already treats is now billed.
• An independent external reviewer found Maynilad aligned with the Philippine Green Equity Label, opening the stock to ESG-mandated capital.
• Vini Research Desk rates MYNLD a Buy, ~45% upside to our ₱23.50 fair value.

The Setup

An independent External Review Provider's initial assessment, covering the period ended December 31, 2025, designates Maynilad as aligned with the requirements of the Philippine Green Equity Label. Separately, the company reported non-revenue water down to 31.5%. At ₱16.18, MYNLD is up 15% from its 52-week low of ₱14.10 on Nov. 12, 2025, but well below its May 13, 2026 high of ₱24.45, and our momentum read on MYNLD is Bearish.

Source: PSE disclosure

Our Read

The lower loss rate is the development that moves earnings. Every point of leakage recovered is water Maynilad has already paid to treat and pump, so the extra billed volume carries almost no added cost and flows largely to margin. The green label adds a structural source of demand: it puts the stock on screens for sustainability mandates at a moment when foreign holders are sellers. We read the one-month slide as rate-driven de-rating of a utility whose own numbers are improving, and that gap is the opportunity.

Vini Research Desk rates MYNLD a Buy, seeing about 45% upside to our fair value of ₱23.50. Higher billed volume from lower water losses supports future dividend growth and capital appreciation, which benefits holders of the Passive Income Plan.

What We're Watching

• Third-quarter results, for the billed-volume gain from lower leakage
• PSE's final oversight framework for the green equity label
• A turn in foreign flows from net selling