Manila Water Buys Back Stock Near Its 52-Week Low

Highlights

• MWC is buying back its own shares with the stock about 25% below its ₱44.90 May 2026 high.
• 1H26 net income rose 6% to ₱8.5 billion, carried by an 11% tariff adjustment rather than volume.
• Vini Research Desk rates MWC a Buy, ~39% upside to our ₱46.40 fair value.

The Setup

Manila Water added to its open-market share repurchases this week, shrinking a share base of 2.61 billion shares, of which 41.88% is public float. The stock last traded at ₱33.50 on 472,400 shares, down 5.9% over the past month amid net foreign selling. MWC is trading near its 52-week low of ₱32.50, set on Nov. 4, 2025, only about 3% above that level. Our momentum read on MWC is Bearish.

Source: PSE disclosure

Our Read

The buyback matters because of what sits beneath it. Revenue rose 11% to ₱10.9 billion on a tariff reset to ₱66.3 per cubic meter while billed volume grew just 0.4%, and EBITDA margin widened to 73.9%. That growth is regulated pricing, not demand that can evaporate, with the East Zone alone delivering ₱7.79 billion. A ₱88.5 billion market cap now prices MWC as if foreign outflows reflect weaker fundamentals. Management's decision to buy stock near the lows is the clearest signal that this discount comes from fund flows, not the business.

Vini Research Desk rates MWC a Buy, seeing about 39% upside to our fair value of ₱46.40. Buying back shares at depressed prices lifts per-share earnings and cash available for dividends, supporting future dividend growth and capital appreciation for holders of the Passive Income Plan.

What We're Watching

• Share count and average price in the next buyback report
• 3Q26 results, after 2Q net income slipped 8% from 1Q
• El Niño's effect on billed volume and supply costs