Insights Market Notes, 12 Sep 2026
Near the low, conviction stays valuation-led
PLDT trades at ₱1,152, just 6.7% above its 52-week low, after a 5.26% monthly decline.
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Two minutes
Highlights
- ₱1,152 leaves TEL just 6.7% above its ₱1,080 52-week low.
- A 5.26% monthly decline has occurred alongside net foreign buying.
- Vini Research Desk rates TEL a Buy, seeing about 32% upside to our ₱1522.50 fair value.
The Setup
The fresh TEL update concerns changes in directors’ and principal officers’ shareholdings. The available headline supplies neither a transaction size nor a dealing price, so it offers no stated purchase-price benchmark for TEL’s listed shares.
TEL trades at ₱1,152, down 5.26% over one month despite net foreign buying. It remains near its 52-week low of ₱1,080, reached on Oct. 16, 2025, standing just 6.7% above that level. Its 52-week high was ₱1,425 on Feb. 26, 2026.
- Last Price
- ₱1,152.00
- Target Price
- ₱1,522.50
- Upside
- ▲ 32.2%
Source: PSE disclosure
Our Read
Our follow-up conviction is valuation-led, not a fresh earnings re-rating. At ₱1,152, the distance to our fair value remains the decision-relevant feature; the shareholding headline does not establish a strategic buyer’s valuation or justify lifting our estimate. A change in personal holdings is not itself evidence of higher PLDT earnings or dividends.
The second signal is the contrast between net foreign buying and a falling share price. Foreign demand has not prevented TEL’s monthly decline, so we would not treat those flows as confirmation that the stock has bottomed. Equally, proximity to ₱1,080 describes the trading range, not a guaranteed floor or a measure of fundamental cheapness.
The takeaway is to retain the Buy case on our existing valuation, without adding an ownership-driven premium. The current price offers potential capital appreciation under that assessment; today’s headline adds no quantified operating benefit to it.
Vini Research Desk rates TEL a Buy, seeing about 32% upside to our fair value of ₱1522.50.
Today’s price setup supports our capital-appreciation case for TEL, benefiting holders of the Passive Income Plan if that value is realized.
What We're Watching
- Whether net foreign buying persists and accompanies stabilization around ₱1,152.
- Any disclosed dealing price and transaction size that make the shareholding change economically meaningful.
- PLDT’s next earnings and cash-flow figures for evidence supporting dividend sustainability and our fair value.
Not investment advice. Figures are from the robo advisor’s model account and may differ from your own. Investing carries risk, including loss of capital. Opinions provided by Vanguard AI Analytics and its Vini Technology in partnership with AAA Equities and AAA Robo Advisor Platform.