Meralco supply wins strengthen AP’s contracted-growth case

The Setup

Aboitiz Power’s GNPower Mariveles Energy Center (GMEC) was named among the best bidders in Meralco’s competitive selection process for 600 MW of supply. GMEC offered 200 MW at an initial bid price of ₱5.5789 per kWh after reducing its original 600-MW offer, alongside 200-MW offers from San Miguel Global Power units Mariveles Power Gen and Sual Power.

The result is important because it adds visibility to AP’s contracted-generation pipeline and underscores the commercial relevance of its thermal fleet in a competitive procurement process. The bids remain subject to Meralco’s post-qualification review, board approval and notices of award, so this is not yet the same as a finalized power supply agreement. The planned agreement is for 15 years, however, making the process potentially meaningful for longer-term dispatch and cash-flow visibility.

AP has rallied 17.3% from its 52-week low of ₱39.00 on Nov. 11, 2025, and now trades at ₱45.75, still below its ₱48.00 52-week high reached on Mar. 30, 2026. The shares are up 6.4% over the past month, with net foreign buying providing a supportive backdrop.

Source: news article

Our Read

The Meralco outcome strengthens AP’s contracted-growth case rather than simply adding a near-term headline. Securing a place among the preferred bidders for a major utility’s supply requirement demonstrates that GMEC remains price-competitive while supporting a more predictable earnings profile for the generation portfolio.

The key distinction is execution. Meralco still needs to complete its evaluation and approval process, and the final agreement will determine the actual commercial contribution. But a 15-year supply arrangement would improve visibility over plant utilization and provide a steadier base from which AP can fund network, renewable and other capacity investments.

The Vanguard AI rates AP a Hold, seeing about 12% upside to our fair value of ₱51.10. The prospective Meralco contract supports future dividend growth and capital appreciation, which benefits holders of the Passive Income Plan.

What We're Watching

• Meralco’s post-qualification results, board approval and issuance of notices of award.
• Final power supply agreement terms, including commencement timing and conditions.
• GMEC’s availability and ability to convert contracted capacity into dependable deliveries.
• Further evidence that AP can add renewable capacity while preserving returns from its thermal fleet.